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Heaviest Impact of the Credit Crisis Yet to Come

Impact spreading outside of financial services sector globally, as majority of industry insiders are expecting some bank failures as a result of the credit crisis.

 
Credit-crisis-related factors such as tight credit and increased payment defaults are expected to result in slower growth and growing business defaults over the remainder of 2008 and into 2009.

A 14-country survey, covering businesses in North America, Europe
and Australia, sponsored by Atradius and in the United States, cosponsored by the Credit Research Foundation, found that a much more significant impact is expected in 2008 than was felt in 2007.

Approximately 65% of respondents are expecting some bank failures as a result of the credit crisis.

Direct exposure to sub-prime lending is higher in Europe (14% of respondents) than in the US (9%).

About 31% of respondents say they have indirect exposure to sub-prime lending with exposure highest in Mexico (51%) and the United States (46%).

Larger companies are more frequently impacted by the credit crisis than
smaller companies. Outside of the US and Mexico, companies in Italy (58%), the UK (46%), Spain (44%), and Australia/New Zealand (43%) have expressed the highest rates of impact from the credit crisis. Swedish respondents expressed a very low rate of impact (7%) from the credit crisis.

By industry, the energy sector has experienced the most tightening and the agriculture industry the least. Businesses in the energy sector have been impacted by the credit crisis more than any other industry. The Building Supply & Construction, Industrial & Manufacturing and Consumer Goods industries are expected to suffer the most over the next twelve months.